Twitter Wars: Sunni-Shia Conflict and Cooperation in the Digital Age

Background

Amid mounting death tolls in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, sectarian discourse is on the rise across the Arab world — particularly in the online sphere, where extremist voices are amplified and violent imagery and rhetoric spreads rapidly. Despite this, social media also provides a space for cross-sectarian discourse and activism. 

Study

An analysis of over 7 million Arabic tweets containing anti-Shia, anti-Sunni, and counter-sectarian keywords sent between early February and mid-August 2015 suggest that violent events and social network structures play key roles in the transmission of this sectarian and counter-sectarian rhetoric on Twitter. While these findings may seem to paint a bleak picture, the fact that levels of anti-Shia and anti-Sunni hate speech — at least in the short term — appear to fluctuate rapidly and generally return to equilibrium in the aftermath of violent events, suggests that upticks in sectarian antagonisms may be short-lived.

Results

Overall, we find that in primarily nondemocratic Arab societies in which ruling families and religious leaders have often used sectarian narratives to weaken their political opponents and potential challengers, rising sectarian tensions can have significant consequences for authoritarian durability, political reform, and support for radical ideologies. Despite this, while prominent actors may accelerate the spread of sectarian rhetoric, they can also use their online (and offline) influence to mitigate its effects. Although social media often amplifies the most polarizing voices, it can also provide influential leaders with a valuable means of cross-sectarian communication.