Google

Starting in January 2023, Louisiana and more than 20 other states passed laws requiring age verification for websites with substantial adult content. Using Google Trends data and a synthetic control design, we examine how these laws affect the public’s digital behavior across four dimensions: searches for compliant websites, non-compliant websites, VPNs, and adult content. Three months after the laws were passed, results show a 51% decrease in searches for the main compliant platform, while searches increased for both non-compliant platform (48.1%) and VPN services (23.6%). Through multiverse analyses, we demonstrate the robustness of these findings to numerous model specifications. Our findings reveal that while regulations reduce traffic to compliant sites and likely decrease overall consumption, users adapt by shifting to providers without verification requirements. This approach provides valuable insights for policymakers around the world considering similar legislative measures of digital content regulation. Our methodology also offers a framework for real-time policy evaluation in contexts with staggered implementation.

In January 2023, Louisiana enacted Act 440, requiring websites containing substantial adult content to verify users’ ages through government-issued identification or commercial verification services. Since the passing of this legislation, 17 additional states have adopted similar laws. Using Google Trends data and a preregistered synthetic control design, this paper examines the impact of these age verification requirements on digital behavior across four key dimensions: searches for the largest compliant website, the largest non-compliant website, VPN services, and adult content generally.Three months after the laws were passed, Our analysis reveals a 51% reduction in searches for the dominant compliant platform, accompanied by significant increases in searches for both the dominant non-compliant platform (48.1%) and VPN services (23.6%). Through multiverse analyses that incorporate multiple specifications and control group constructions, we demonstrate the robustness of these behavioral changes. Our point estimates remain consistent with our pre-registered hypotheses across 3,200 point estimates. Our findings highlight that while these regulation efforts reduce traffic to compliant firms and likely a net reduction overall to this type of content, individuals adapt primarily by moving to content providers that do not require age verification. Our methodological approach offers a framework for real-time policy evaluation in contexts with staggered treatment adoption.