• Journal Article

    SARS-CoV-2 RNA Concentrations in Wastewater Foreshadow Dynamics and Clinical Presentation of New COVID-19 Cases

    • Fuqing Wu, 
    • Amy Xiao, 
    • Jianbo Zhang, 
    • Katya Moniz, 
    • Noriko Endo, 
    • Federica Armas, 
    • Richard Bonneau
    • Megan A. Brown
    • Mary Bushman, 
    • Peter R. Chai, 
    • Claire Duvallet, 
    • Timothy B. Erickson, 
    • Katelyn Foppe, 
    • Newsha Ghaeli, 
    • Xiaoqiong Gu, 
    • William P. Hanage, 
    • Katherine H. Huang, 
    • Wei Lin Lee, 
    • Mariana Matus, 
    • Kyle A. McElroy, 
    • Jonathan Nagler
    • Steven F. Rhode, 
    • Mauricio Santillana, 
    • Joshua A. Tucker
    • Stefan Wuertz, 
    • Shijie Zhao, 
    • Janelle Thompson, 
    • Eric J. Alm

    Science of the Total Environment, 2022

    View Article View abstract

    Current estimates of COVID-19 prevalence are largely based on symptomatic, clinically diagnosed cases. The existence of a large number of undiagnosed infections hampers population-wide investigation of viral circulation. Here, we quantify the SARS-CoV-2 concentration and track its dynamics in wastewater at a major urban wastewater treatment facility in Massachusetts, between early January and May 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in wastewater on March 3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater correlated with clinically diagnosed new COVID-19 cases, with the trends appearing 4–10 days earlier in wastewater than in clinical data. We inferred viral shedding dynamics by modeling wastewater viral load as a convolution of back-dated new clinical cases with the average population-level viral shedding function. The inferred viral shedding function showed an early peak, likely before symptom onset and clinical diagnosis, consistent with emerging clinical and experimental evidence. This finding suggests that SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater may be primarily driven by viral shedding early in infection. This work shows that longitudinal wastewater analysis can be used to identify trends in disease transmission in advance of clinical case reporting, and infer early viral shedding dynamics for newly infected individuals, which are difficult to capture in clinical investigations.

    Area of Study

    Date Posted

    Sep 14, 2021

  • Journal Article

    Using Social and Behavioral Science to Support COVID-19 Pandemic Response

    • Jay J. Van Bavel
    • Katherine Baicker, 
    • Paulo S. Boggio, 
    • Valerio Capraro, 
    • Aleksandra Cichocka, 
    • Mina Cikara, 
    • Molly J. Crockett, 
    • Alia J. Crum, 
    • Karen M. Douglas, 
    • James N. Druckman, 
    • John Drury, 
    • Oeindrila Dube, 
    • Naomi Ellemers, 
    • Eli J. Finkel, 
    • James H. Fowler, 
    • Michele Gelfand, 
    • Shihui Han, 
    • S. Alexander Haslam, 
    • Jolanda Jetten, 
    • Shinobu Kitayama, 
    • Dean Mobbs, 
    • Lucy E. Napper, 
    • Dominic J. Packer, 
    • Gordon Pennycook, 
    • Ellen Peters, 
    • Richard E. Petty, 
    • David G. Rand, 
    • Stephen D. Reicher, 
    • Simone Schnall, 
    • Azim Shariff, 
    • Linda J. Skitka, 
    • Sandra Susan Smith, 
    • Cass R. Sunstein, 
    • Nassim Tabri, 
    • Joshua A. Tucker
    • Sander van der Linden, 
    • Paul van Lange, 
    • Kim A. Weeden, 
    • Michael J. A. Wohl, 
    • Jamil Zaki, 
    • Sean R. Zion, 
    • Robb Willer

    Nature Human Behavior, 2020

    View Article View abstract

    The COVID-19 pandemic represents a massive global health crisis. Because the crisis requires large-scale behaviour change and places significant psychological burdens on individuals, insights from the social and behavioural sciences can be used to help align human behaviour with the recommendations of epidemiologists and public health experts. Here we discuss evidence from a selection of research topics relevant to pandemics, including work on navigating threats, social and cultural influences on behaviour, science communication, moral decision-making, leadership, and stress and coping. In each section, we note the nature and quality of prior research, including uncertainty and unsettled issues. We identify several insights for effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlight important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months.

    Date Posted

    Apr 30, 2020


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